Last night, most Americans tuned into the Grammy’s. But we were focused on the awards coming out of London. With two weeks left until Oscar Sunday, BAFTA is one of our last data signals. The British version of the Oscars had a few surprises, most notably honoring Emmanuelle Riva as Best Actress.
Perhaps not as surprising was the continued success of Argo. The film won Best Film, and Ben Affleck picked up another trophey for Best Director. Argo has now picked up top awards at PGA, DGA, SAG, Golden Globes and Critics Choice. Given Argo’s win, the film gained a few more points on the betting markets, now up to 81.5%. We have the film leading at 42.1%.
Given that both the Academy and BAFTA share a few hundred members, the Brits have earned a strong reputation as a solid indicator for Oscar likelihood. Last year, the awards matched on all 6 major categories. The same will not hold true this year. Our model matches the BAFTA winners for Best Picture (Argo), Best Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis) and Best Supporting Actress (Anne Hathaway). But, we still have Jennifer Lawrence leading the Best Actress Race. The Best Supporting Actor race is very … Read the rest
