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The British Are Coming!

Last night, most Americans tuned into the Grammy’s. But we were focused on the awards coming out of London. With two weeks left until Oscar Sunday, BAFTA is one of our last data signals. The British...

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The Diva-Off

Two weeks ago we used social listening tools to compare the growing buzz around Argo relative to Best Picture nemesis Lincoln. Perhaps it was last week’s episode of Glee, or perhaps it was the Perez...

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Traffic Has Been Bad

Hey all, Sorry for the delay in posting the last two days. As you know, Hollywood Blvd. has been a nightmare. We’ve been stuck in traffic for days. This is the perfect time for SNL’s “The Californians”...

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One Week Left…WGA Preview

This weekend is one of our final model signals.  The WGA Awards are this weekend, and there is a relationship between the winners of the WGA and both the Oscars for Best Original Screenplay, Best...

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WGA Goes Political, and The Final Week Countdown

As Hollywood prepares for the Oscars (and if you live in the area, you know that Hollywood Blvd is already closed for preparations), the Writers Guild of America celebrated its annual awards last...

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Vanity Fair – Polls and Parties

Recently, while reading Vanity Fair’s account  of the wisdom of crowds and how that wisdom can be mined to predict the Oscars, I found myself nodding along with the piece.  Yes, I am a firm believer...

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T-Minus

We are eager to update the models tomorrow! Stay tuned. In the meantime, we have to get ready for Michael Gold’s LA Trip. In the meantime, check out this 2013 Oscar montage: … Read the rest

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My Money Is On…

As they say in the gambler, you gotta know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em.  Oscar betting is a little easier with the help of data science.  For those of you looking to place real money on...

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The Final Countdown

TGIF – no, not thank goodness it is Friday; Thank Goodness It is FINAL. Today is our final forecast for Sunday’s Academy Awards.  And, don’t worry. We are going to keep blogging after the Oscars.  Our...

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and The Oscar® Goes to…

We have our Winners! It has been a fantastic few months since we launched the Farsite Forecast with our inaugural Oscar Forecast.  Below is a summary of the pundits and data science predictions....

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NFL Draft: How Good are First Round Picks Really?

What fun would draft week be without looking at some data? In that spirit we decided to look how draft position affects the willingness of a team to play a given player. In other words, does the sunk...

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Best Picture – 12 Years a Slave

In one of the closest races we can remember, Gravity and 12 Years a Slave are neck and neck. Initial Farsite data had Gravity with a slight edge, but our statistical model—which balances model data...

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Best Director – Alfonso Cuaron

With his very first Oscar nomination, Alfonso Cuaron is our leader for Best Director. His wins at the Directors Guild Awards—the biggest predictor for winning Best Director—along with his Best Director...

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Best Actor – Matthew McConaughey

Matthew McConaughey is ahead of his fellow nominees for his work in Dallas Buyers Club with an 82% chance of taking home the statue. McConaughey will roll into the Oscars with Best Actor awards from...

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Best Actress – Cate Blanchett

Even among Oscar powerhouses like Meryl Streep and Judi Dench, Cate Blanchett is poised to take home the golden guy for Best Actress. Blanchett has 5 previous Oscar nominations (including 1 win) and a...

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Best Supporting Actor – Jared Leto

Jared Leto holds our highest predicted winning margin, with an 86% chance of victory for his work in Dallas Buyers Club. Leto, who’s been away from the acting world to focus on music with his band 30...

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Best Supporting Actress – Lupita Nyong’o

Lupita Nyog’o, from our Best Picture pick, 12 Years a Slave, has gained ground in recent weeks, with wins at the Critic’s Choice and Screen Actors Guild, where her acceptance speeches were “emotional...

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But how, exactly, does the Farsite prediction model work?

At Farsite, we created a statistical model that keeps two important things in mind: 1) 40 years of Oscars history can give us winner predictions based on trends 2) Intangibles, like momentum, popular...

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Farsite was right: 2013 Oscar prediction results

It worked. We accurately predicted 5 out of 6 winners in the top categories for the 2013 Oscars: Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress and Best...

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Just when we thought the Best Picture Oscar® race couldn’t get tighter

How the Producers Guild Awards tie affects our pick We hate to toot our own horn, but here goes: we correctly picked winners in 5 out of the big 6 Oscar categories last year. We did it using a complex...

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